(5/17/2023)
Written by John Raley
Victor Wembanyama YOU are a San Antonio Spur.
After last night it seems all but inevitable that the Spurs will add to their trend of selecting highly sought after big men with the first overall pick in the draft. Now for those of you who are not familiar with the inner workings of the NBA Draft Lottery here is a breakdown:
There are 30 teams in the NBA and each year 16 make the playoffs. Those 14 teams that do not make it to the postseason get entered into the Draft Lottery to decide the order of the upcoming draft. Each of those teams is assigned a 4-digit combination that correlates to ping pong balls inside of a machine. The worse a team did in the prior season, the more likely they are to have their combination of ping pong balls be selected for a high draft pick with the 3 worst teams all having a 14% chance at the number 1 overall pick. Rather than using the ping pong balls for all 14 picks they are only used for the first 4. Picks 1-4 are decided by the ping pong balls and the remaining picks are determined by season outcome with the worst team outside the top 4 picking 5th and the best team out of the top 4 picking 14th.
The San Antonio Spurs finished last season with a record of 22-60 which was tied for the worst overall record in the Western Conference with the Houston Rockets. I cannot remember a more sure fire first pick in all my life than Victor Wembanyama. I mean the guy is a 7’5” freak athlete who can score at all three levels and provide elite rim protection from day 1. If I were to give him a player comp it would be a cross of Rudy Gobert’s rim protection with Kevin Durant's ability to score over the top of smaller defenders.
It is interesting to note that the 2 times before this year the Spurs had the number 1 pick they selected David Robinson from Navy and Tim Duncan from Wake Forest. Both bigs went on to lead the Spurs to numerous championships and were first ballot Hall of Famers.
Spurs fans experienced the highest of highs last night and I am sure are elated with how they landed in the draft process. Other teams like Houston and Detroit got the shorter end of the stick. Detroit struggled mightily last year finishing with a record of 17-65 which was the worst in all of the NBA. They had a 14% chance at the number 1 pick along with Houston and San Antonio, but they fell out of the top 4 and will be picking 5th. The Houston Rockets were another team with high hopes of winning the Wembanyama sweepstakes but fell short and landed the 4th pick in the upcoming draft.
Now what does this mean for these two franchises? That’s uncertain as of right now. Both teams have a wealth of young players who could potentially be stars in the league, but nothing is certain. I could see both teams shop their picks around to try and either trade up to 2 or 3 or even try and acquire some veterans and address areas of weakness. I think it is equally as likely that these franchises keep their picks and either stick with who they draft or make a move on draft night to try and shake things up.
Now the Spurs were not the only winners in last night's Lottery. The Charlotte Hornets landed the number 2 pick and the Portland Trail Blazers landed the number 3 pick. After Wembanyama the second-best prospect is Scoot Henderson.
Scoot is an extremely athletic point guard with elite finishing ability around the rim and the ability to tear through transition defenses. His jump shot has room for improvement but that is something that NBA shooting coaches will work hard to address wherever he may end up. What I think is going to be the most interesting aspect of this year's draft is how picks 2-4 shake up.
In all likelihood those picks will be some combination of Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, and Brandon Miller. Both Scoot and Amen chose to forgo college this past year (Scoot played for the G league Ignite and Amen played in the Overtime Elite League). As I stated earlier Scoot is the premier point guard prospect in this draft, but the teams selecting at 2 and 3 seem to have their franchise point guards already. Charlotte has Lamelo Ball who was sidelined with injury most of this year but has already proven what type of impact he can have in the NBA, and Portland has Damian Lillard who has been an All Star 6 times in his career. I could see either one of these teams trading back to try and gain an extra first round pick and select a wing or big later in the first round.
I have also heard some smoke in regard to Damian Lillard being traded. Lillard is arguably the second-best point guard in the NBA after Steph Curry and it’s no secret that Portland has failed to put a team around him that has legitimate title chances during his tenure with them. However, Lillard is still on contract and over the next 2 seasons will make over $90 million so if he does get traded the suitor would have to have the cap space available.
Amen reminds me of a taller Scoot. Both guys are freak athletes at the point guard position, but Amen offers better size at 6’7” with a 7’ wingspan which projects him to be an elite perimeter defender right away. He also has shown flashes of being an extremely high-level passer during his time in the Overtime League and is a 2 time Overtime Elite League MVP. What does worry me about Thompson is the fact that he shot just 23% from deep during this past year, but similarly to Scoot I think this is something that can be fixed over the course of a year or two working with NBA shooting coaches.
To me the most interesting prospect in this year’s draft is Brandon Miller. There is no doubt that Miller is an elite prospect who can do it all. He shot 38.5% from deep in the SEC last year on over 7 attempts per game. He also measures in at 6’9” and projects to be an elite 3 and D player right away. He reminds me a lot of Mikal Bridges when he left Villanova but will likely be a better NBA player right away than Bridges was. The thing that will hold Miller back potentially and may cause him to drop is his off the court issues. Miller was implicated in a murder involving 2 of his teammates from Alabama. While Miller was not there when the murder took place there is evidence that he may have known it was going to occur and may have even supplied the murder weapon.
We have seen character issues cause an athlete's draft stock to fall in the past. Remember when Laremy Tunsil fell to the mid first round in the NFL draft because a video of him using a gas mask bong went viral on draft night. There is also the current issue of gun use in the NBA as we have seen with Ja Morant in the past months. The NBA has made it clear that they do not condone their players flexing guns on social media and I have to believe they would be even further against any of their players being involved in a murder trial.
Teams will have to do their due diligence on Miller before drafting him, but as I stated earlier there is no question what he can bring to the table from a basketball standpoint to a struggling team.
With all that being said, nobody knows what will happen a few months from now on draft night. Players could get injured. News could break that would cause guys' stock to rise or fall. Trades could occur, but as of this moment the Spurs are the big winners and everyone else (not including whoever wins the Finals) are the losers. Like I said this is all subject to change and last night was just a baseline for what is to come.
Comments