(6/9/22)
Written by John Raley
The Houston Rockets have secured another top 3 pick in the upcoming NBA draft coming off of a season where they won just 20 games and had the worst record in all of basketball. Last season, Houston had the number two overall pick and selected Jalen Green from the G-League Ignite. Green got off to a slow start to his season but post all star break he was arguably the best rookie in the class. In Green’s final 30 regular season games he averaged 21 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3 assists per contest. The backcourt pairing of Green along with Kevin Porter Jr. looks to be what Houston wants to build their team around for the future with both players being very young, highly skilled, and extremely athletic with both having all star potential. Outside of the number 2 pick, Houston struck gold with Alperen Sengun from Turkey and Joshua Christopher from Arizona State. Sengun’s game reminds me a lot of Nikola Jokic or Pau Gasol. He is a big body who has a myriad of post moves and fakes down low that allow him to get his shot off against more athletic defenders while also possessing a high basketball IQ and great passing skills. Christopher came off the bench for Houston all year and showed flashes of his potential to be an elite sixth man in this league. Christopher averaged 7.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game this season in just 18 minutes per game. He is a natural scorer with a good handle and nice form on his jump shot; he just needs to become a more efficient shooter over the course of the off season. Christian Wood’s future with the franchise is uncertain as of right now. There is no questioning his abilities on offense. At 6’10” Wood can take other teams bigs out to the three point line and knock down shots as well as get to the rim which makes him extremely difficult to guard. His defense on the other hand needs massive improvement. Wood routinely would give up 15-20+ points a night to some of the lesser big men in the NBA. There is a possibility that Houston could try and package him along with their 17th overall pick in the upcoming draft to try and move up to get two picks in the top 10. The Rockets also used G-League point guard Daishen Nix in 24 games last season averaging 10.9 minutes. Nix is more of a traditional pass first point guard than Porter Jr. is, but he needs to make strides in his ability to shoot the ball.
At pick number three this year the Rockets have what most would call a “no brainer” for their selection. The top three prospects have been Chet Holmgren from Gonzaga, Jabari Smith from Auburn, and Paolo Banchero from Duke for most of the college basketball season and continue to be the three most talked about today. Whichever one of these three guys is still available when the Rockets are on the clock will almost certainly be the guy that GM Rafael Stone selects. Fit wise if Houston still has Wood on their roster when it’s their turn to pick it makes the most sense to pick either Jabari or Paolo to add a wing to what seems to be a pretty solidified starting 5. Now if Wood is traded so Houston can move up things start to get interesting. Houston would likely try and get a wing who can defend multiple positions like Tari Eason who offers some versatility for a team that struggled to defend all season long. Eason is coming off of a season where he had huge improvements in every statistical category and his elite defensive potential would be much needed when playing against guys like Sengun or Wood. There is also the possibility that if Wood gets traded Houston tries to replace him with someone with some size to help them on the glass and protect the rim. Mark Williams is a 7’2” center from Duke who is extremely intriguing as a prospect. He is an elite rim protector with a very high motor who has the athleticism to step out and guard big men on the perimeter. His game offensively reminds me a lot of Clint Capela who was the perfect pairing for James Harden in his days with the Rockets. Williams can be utilized in high screen and roll situations to crash towards the rim as a lob threat which will keep help defenders honest when teams guards drive to the basket off of him. Offensively he needs to make some improvements. Williams shot 72% from the field last year at Duke, but almost all of his shots came directly at the rim as either dunks or putbacks off of missed shots. See what I mean with the Capela comparison?
There will be a clearer idea of what direction the Rockets are taking in their rebuild after draft night on June 23rd. That being said I think that Houston already has arguably the best young core in the league. Green, Porter Jr, Sengun, Christopher, and Wood are all under 26 years old and their best years are ahead of them. Offensively Houston will be dangerous this year with their elite athleticism on the perimeter paired with bigs ability to score down on the block. The big jumps will have to come on the defensive end where they looked lost at times last year. I think part of that is so many young guys playing together that are inexperienced playing professionally and another part of that is lack of communication. These are both things that will improve over the course of an off season with guys playing together and building more chemistry.
All that being said here is my prediction for what the Rockets rotation will be for the 2023 season.
PG: Kevin Porter Jr
SG: Jalen Green
SF: Eric Gordon
PF: Paolo Banchero
C: Christian Wood
6: Alperen Sengun
7: Joshua Christopher/ Jae’Sean Tate
8: Daishen Nix
I’ve got Sengun slotted as the sixth man but there is a very real possibility that he starts at the 4 spot next to Wood which would bump Banchero to the 3 and send Eric Gordon to the bench where he would still play good minutes.