(6/13/22)
Written by John Raley
The NBA draft will commence on Thursday, June 23rd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Over the last few weeks prospects have been working out individually for teams that are interested in them after the conclusion of the NBA Draft Combine on May 22nd. During the combine the lottery took place where it was revealed that the top three selections in this year's draft belong to the Orlando Magic, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Houston Rockets in that order. These three squads combined for a record of 66-180 and are looking for cornerstone pieces for their rebuilds.
The consensus top three prospects going into draft night are Chet Holmgren from Gonzaga, Jabari Smith from Auburn, and Paolo Banchero from Duke.
Chet presents a type of player the NBA has never seen before. At 7’ tall he is an elite rim protector who has the offensive skillset of a guard. When I say Chet is an elite rim protector I’m not just talking about his physical tools for it with his 7’6” wingspan. He has a very natural feel for where to be and when to go up for blocks which is something that you really can’t teach someone. He presents a mismatch on the perimeter for opposing bigs with his ball handling ability and his range on his jumpshot. However, his frame and weight at his size scare me. Although Chet is 7’ tall he weighs only 190 pounds and he does not seem to have a frame that will add a lot of muscle. My last knock on Chet is that he can be a little loose and carefree with the basketball at times, particularly in transition scenarios when he is pushing the ball up the court after a defensive rebound. Now all of these prospects played for some of the top teams in the country, but while Gonzaga is extremely talented they don’t play the level of competition that Duke or Auburn does night in and night out. Like I said it’s tough to really gauge how good Chet could be because we have never seen a player like him before, but in my opinion he has the highest ceiling and the lowest floor of these three top prospects.
Jabari Smith brings great size and length on the wing with a good jump shot from three point range that will only improve as time goes. I believe Smith can fit more naturally and comfortably in an NBA offense right away due to his ability to score off of catch and shoot scenarios. He does not have to have the ball in his hands every possession on offense in order for him to have an impact right away. He also presents the potential to be an elite wing defender with his 7’1” wingspan at 6’10”. That size will present itself to be a huge advantage offensively too because big men who will have the size to contest his shots will struggle when he brings them out to the perimeter while smaller guards who can keep up with his quickness won’t be able to give a solid contest to a guy that is much bigger than them. While there is no question that Smith’s shooting is ready to make the jump to the next level, his ball handling ability is still in question. Smith struggled at times last year with creating shots off the bounce and not having counter moves for when defenders beat him to a spot. In the NBA if Smith wants to be an all star level offensive threat he will need to tighten up that handle to become more comfortable going to the rim. There were also times in big games it seemed Smith did not command the ball in clutch time. If Smith wants to be a force to be reckoned with for years in this league he is going to have to be more assertive on offense once his skills develop further.
Paolo is almost like a hybrid of these two prospects above. While Jabari has great size his play style is more indicative of a wing while Chet’s height and length list him as a big man. At 6’10” with a 7’1” wingspan paired with explosive athleticism, Banchero seems like a great fit for a team that needs a wing and a big as he can play either position on both sides of the ball. Banchero has a very strong ability to be a playmaker at his size which we are seeing more and more of in the NBA over the past few years. He possesses one of the best spin moves I have seen from a college player in a few years and he showed the ability to step out and hit three pointers all season long. His size and explosiveness will allow him to compete physically from day one and he creates matchup nightmares for other teams. I would like to see him become more consistent on the defensive end. There were times at Duke this past season where he would make amazing blocks from the opposite side or come up with a big stop in a close game, but there were also times where he seemed lackadaisical and lazy when defenders went to the rim. It’s not his ability to defend that I worry about, it's his want to defend, and if you want to be a champion at the next level you have to want to defend. Banchero did show that he can knock down jumpshots last season, but he will need to become a much more consistent shooter to be a serious threat at all three levels next year. If he can figure out how to consistently shoot 35% or better from deep he will be an absolute problem for many years to come.
If I had to rank these prospects 1-3 as of right now it would go like this:
Paolo Banchero
Size and athleticism will allow him to compete right away, seems the most NBA ready right now and his issues can be fixed over the course of his rookie season
Jabari Smith
Jumpshot and length will make him an impact 3 and D player right away with the potential to become a two way star, ball handling should get better but if not I still see him as a very solid role player on a contender
Chet Holmgren
While Chet has the size and length to be an elite defensive anchor and the skills to be a force offensively his weight scares me, it’s not just the fact that I worry bigger guys will dominate him it’s also my worry that he may be injury prone, we have seen lots of very tall players have their career derailed due to early injury and that’s too big of a risk for me to justify taking him over these other two guys
Keep in mind that all three of these guys only played one year of college basketball and are extremely young. They all have the potential to be superstars and we won’t know for years who “won” or “lost” the draft. So whoever your team ends up with, try and have an open mind because they may be great.